Marijuana Business Magazine July 2018

But early on, there could be shortages, particu- larly for certain strains. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, because this is a brand-new market. Q What do you think will be the impact on Cana- da’s black market from the launch of legaliza- tion? Will it vary by province? A In Ontario, you’re going to have a small number of stores out of the box, at least under the govern- ment's current proposal. There could be market movements where one province is better at strip- ping out the black market – not that anybody believes that you get the black market entirely. In cities and provinces where retail is readily accessible, with quality-assured product, it’s more likely that the black market and criminal organiza- tions will find it harder to continue their illegality. If one province or a number of provinces are good at dealing with forms of illegality, organized crime will just move to another province. That’s why we encouraged the provinces to collaborate closely, consult and try as much as possible to have the same approach to cannabis distribution and retail. Having said that, we always knew there would be regional variations. Q Can you paint a picture of the legal cannabis industry in Canada in 2025? A If things all go the way I would like, we will create a legal market where: • Supply meets demand. • We have quality-assured product and good choice in product, including edibles. • We have developed an instrument – or more than one instrument – by which we can detect drug-impaired driving. • We have good public education programs that help potential users, parents and school boards with good, factual information to be able to talk about both the risk and benefits. I also hope that in 10 years we will have done suf- ficient clinical research so that: • We’re able to support or refute medicinal claims in relation to cannabis. • We see a decrease in black-market sales. • Those who do use medicinally have good access to a choice of product they need to control their epilepsy, nausea, chronic pain – whatever it is. Q Do you think a small number of major compa- nies will end up dominating the market down the road, similar to what we see in the alcohol industry? A We heard about that on the task force. That’s why the task force talks about leaving room for what we call “craft,” or small, cultivators, which is why you see micro-cultivation and micro-processing regulations. But free markets are just that. And they will respond to supply and demand. They will respond to investment and technology. And I think you will see consolidation in this business. But I think you will also continue to see the craft grower – the smaller grower who is producing quality, high-end product that there’s a demand for – similar to craft brewers. There are a lot of craft breweries out there that are owned by people who love beer, love producing beer, and I think you will continue to see the same thing in cannabis. Q How do you see global medical cannabis trends playing out, and where do Canada’s businesses fit in? A Some companies are already providing product in countries like Australia, Germany and New Zealand. Canadian companies with experience are going to look for opportunities. Other companies will either produce product in Canada to be shipped to markets around the world or – as in the case of Canopy (Growth) and others – they will build facili- ties closer to the market. I think that’s smart. They will provide product to a small medicinal market originally. And then they will hope, as in Canada, over a period of time those countries will start to move to legalization of recrea- tional use. They will be on the ground and have the benefit of being a first-mover. It’s a big risk for most countries to go from medicinal to legalization of recreational use. But do I think it will happen over time? Yes, I do. ◆ This interview has been edited for length and clarity. July 2018 • Marijuana Business Magazine • 17